关键词： Core residents   Community risk communication   Mega-city governance   Public health crisis   Risk communication   Social media   RESILIENCE   ENGAGEMENT  

摘要： BackgroundAgainst the backdrop of the global public health crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic has exposed significant disparities in the supply and demand of risk information related to public health crises, posing severe challenges to risk governance in megacities. Shanghai, China, introduced community WeChat groups for community communication, effectively facilitating the dissemination and response of grassroots information and providing a new path for interactive governance in the *** study collected 1006 questionnaires from residents of 350 communities in Shanghai through an online survey between June 10 and July 10, 2022. Multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to examine the impact of different participants (including the community, core residents, and the combined community and core residents) on community risk communication, perceived communication quality, and dissemination themes related to COVID-19 on community communication satisfaction. Additionally, in-depth interviews were conducted with 20 core residents from different types of communities, focusing on the specific methods of risk communication through community WeChat groups and their ability to disseminate information, respond to, and solve *** information coverage and perceived response efficiency are significantly positively correlated with communication satisfaction. Notably, the speed of community information response has the greatest impact on communication satisfaction. Regarding COVID-19-related information dissemination themes, "community outbreaks, supplies, nucleic acids, outbreak prevention measures, and scientific content" all have a significant impact on communication effectiveness, with "nucleic acid testing information" having the greatest impact. Although the statistical data indicate that the participation of core residents in risk communication does not significantly affect communication satisfaction, it seems to be related to the size

关键词： Hybrid model   DWT   ARIMA   Prediction   COVID-19  

摘要： Objective: Public health surveillance is an important aspect of outbreak early warning based on prediction models. The present study compares a hybrid model based on discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) for predicting incidence cases due to COVID-19. Methods: In the current cross-sectional stuady based on time-series data, the incidence data for confirmed daily cases of COVID-19 from February 26, 2019, to April 25, 2022, were used. A hybrid model based on DWT and ARIMA and a pure ARIMA model were used to predict the trend. All analyzes were performed by MATLAB 2018, stata 2015, and Excel 2013 computer software. Results: Compared to the ARIMA model, the prediction results of the hybrid model were closer to the actual number of incident cases. The correlation between predicted values by the hybrid model with real data was higher than the correlation between predicted values by the ARIMA model with actual data. Conclusions: Discreet Wavelet decomposition of the dataset was combined with an ARIMA model and showed better performance in predicting the future trend.

关键词： wastewater-based epidemiology   international sea travel   border crossing   passenger ferry   AMR   SARS-CoV-2 infection   import rate   public health surveillance   UNITED-STATES   ENTERIC VIRUSES   NOROVIRUS   PCR   QUANTIFICATION   PREVALENCE   DISCHARGES   INFLUENZA   OUTBREAKS  

摘要： Objective: The worldwide spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the resulting COVID-19 pandemic has been driven by international travel. This has led to the desire to develop surveillance approaches which can estimate the rate of import of pathogenic organisms across international borders. The aim of this study was to investigate the use of wastewater-based approaches for the surveillance of viral pathogens on commercial short-haul (3.5 h transit time) roll-on/roll-off passenger/freight ferries operating between the UK and the Republic of *** Samples of toilet-derived wastewater (blackwater) were collected from two commercial ships over a 4-week period and analysed for SARS-CoV-2, influenza, enterovirus, norovirus, the faecal-marker virus crAssphage and a range of physical and chemical indicators of wastewater *** A small proportion of the wastewater samples were positive for SARS-CoV-2 (8% of the total), consistent with theoretical predictions of detection frequency (4%-15% of the total) based on the national COVID-19 Infection Survey and defecation behaviour. In addition, norovirus was detected in wastewater at low frequency. No influenza A/B viruses, enterovirus or enterovirus D68 were detected throughout the study *** We conclude that testing of wastewater from ships that cross international maritime boundaries may provide a cost-effective and relatively unbiased method to estimate the flow of infected individuals between countries. The approach is also readily applicable for the surveillance of other disease-causing agents.

关键词： COVID 19   Cytokines   Inflammation   Virus testing   SARS CoV 2   Respiratory infections   Body mass index   Pathogenesis  

摘要： Background After initial COVID-19, immune dysregulation may persist and drive post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC). We described longitudinal trajectories of cytokines in adults up to 6 months following SARS-CoV-2 infection and explored early predictors of *** RECoVERED is a prospective cohort of individuals with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between May 2020 and June 2021 in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Serum was collected at weeks 4, 12 and 24 of follow-up. Monthly symptom questionnaires were completed from month 2 after COVID-19 onset onwards; lung diffusion capacity (DLCO) was tested at 6 months. Cytokine concentrations were analysed by human magnetic Luminex screening assay. We used a linear mixed-effects model to study log-concentrations of cytokines over time, assessing their association with socio-demographic and clinical characteristics that were included in the model as fixed *** 186/349 (53%) participants had >= 2 serum samples and were included in current analyses. Of these, 101/186 (54%: 45/101[45%] female, median age 55 years [IQR = 45-64]) reported PASC at 12 and 24 weeks after COVID-19 onset. We included 37 reference samples (17/37[46%] female, median age 49 years [IQR = 40-56]). In a multivariate model, PASC was associated with raised CRP and abnormal diffusion capacity with raised IL10, IL17, IL6, IP10 and TNF alpha at 24 weeks. Early (0-4 week) IL-1 beta and BMI at COVID-19 onset were predictive of PASC at 24 *** Our findings indicate that immune dysregulation plays an important role in PASC pathogenesis, especially among individuals with reduced pulmonary function. Early IL-1 beta shows promise as a predictor of PASC.

关键词： allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation   coronavirus-19   donor selection   engraftment   graft-versus host disease   VERSUS-HOST-DISEASE   SARS-COV-2   LEUKEMIA  

摘要： Introduction To explore the impact of donors' COVID-19 status on allogeneic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT), we compared the transplant outcomes of 74 *** This multi-center retrospective study included nine participants receiving grafts from COVID-19 positive donors (CPD), 45 from COVID-19 experienced donors (CED), and 20 from COVID-19 naive donors (CND). We evaluated engraftment, complications, and survival rates among the three *** All apheresis procedures were successful with no significant differences in CD34+ cells or lymphocytes in grafts among the three groups. All patients achieved engraftment by day 30 post-HSCT. The incidence of grade II-IV acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) was 55.6%, 20%, and 10% in the CPD, CED, and CND groups, respectively (p = 0.024). Multivariate analysis indicated that COVID-19 positivity in donors at the time of apheresis was an independent risk factor for II-IV aGVHD (p = 0.020, OR = 12.159, 95% CI 1.783 -135.760). No differences were observed among the groups in terms of chronic GVHD, viral infection, or sinusoidal obstruction syndrome. The 6-month overall survival and disease-free survival rates were also similar among the three *** Our results suggest that the COVID-19-positive status of donors might not impact graft collection, engraftment, or short-term survival of allo-HSCT recipients but might increase the risk of aGVHD. Further research is needed to explore the influence of donors' COVID-19 status on long-term complications and survival in allo-HSCT recipients.

关键词： SURVEILLANCE   SARS-COV-2   INFECTION   INFLUENZA   VIRUS  

摘要： BackgroundTimely and informed public health responses to infectious diseases such as COVID-19 necessitate reliable information about infection dynamics. The case ascertainment rate (CAR), the proportion of infections that are reported as cases, is typically much less than one and varies with testing practices and behaviours, making reported cases unreliable as the sole source of data. The concentration of viral RNA in wastewater samples provides an alternate measure of infection prevalence that is not affected by clinical testing, healthcare-seeking behaviour or access to *** construct a state-space model with observed data of levels of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater and reported case incidence and estimate the hidden states of the effective reproduction number, R, and CAR using sequential Monte Carlo *** analyse data from 1 January 2022 to 31 March 2023 from Aotearoa New Zealand. Our model estimates that R peaks at 2.76 (95% CrI 2.20, 3.83) around 18 February 2022 and the CAR peaks around 12 March 2022. We calculate that New Zealand's second Omicron wave in July 2022 is similar in size to the first, despite fewer reported cases. We estimate that the CAR in the BA.5 Omicron wave in July 2022 is approximately 50% lower than in the BA.1/BA.2 Omicron wave in March *** R, CAR, and cumulative number of infections provides useful information for planning public health responses and understanding the state of immunity in the population. This model is a useful disease surveillance tool, improving situational awareness of infectious disease dynamics in real-time. To make informed public health decisions about infectious diseases, it is important to understand the number of infections in the community. Reported cases, however, underestimate the number of infections and the degree of underestimation likely changes with time. Wastewater data provides an alternative data source that does not depend on testing practices. Here, we combined

关键词： SARS-CoV-2   multiple sclerosis   disease-modifying therapy   immune response   immune-phenotyping   B-CELLS   IMMUNOSENESCENCE   FINGOLIMOD   MARKERS  

摘要： Introduction Disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) have been shown to improve disease outcomes in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. They may also impair the immune response to vaccines, including the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. However, available data on both the intrinsic immune effects of DMTs and their influence on cellular response to the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine are still *** Here, we evaluated the immune cell effects of 3 DMTs on the response to mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccination by comparing MS patients treated with one specific therapy (fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or natalizumab) with both healthy controls and untreated patients. We profiled 23 B-cell traits, 57 T-cell traits, and 10 cytokines, both at basal level and after stimulation with a pool of SARS-CoV-2 spike peptides, in 79 MS patients, treated with DMTs or untreated, and 32 healthy controls. Measurements were made before vaccination and at three time points after *** and Discussion MS patients treated with fingolimod showed the strongest immune cell dysregulation characterized by a reduction in all measured lymphocyte cell classes; the patients also had increased immune cell activation at baseline, accompanied by reduced specific immune cell response to the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Also, anti-spike specific B cells progressively increased over the three time points after vaccination, even when antibodies measured from the same samples instead showed a decline. Our findings demonstrate that repeated booster vaccinations in MS patients are crucial to overcoming the immune cell impairment caused by DMTs and achieving an immune response to the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine comparable to that of healthy controls.

关键词： Dynamic contact network   COVID-19 spreading   Agent-based intervention strategy   Contact tracking and isolation   Economic loss   QUARANTINE   EPIDEMIC   TREND   SEIR  

摘要： Many intervention strategies, such as patient isolation and contact tracking, had been implemented in different countries to slow down and control the spread because of the enormous threats and losses caused by COVID-19. Since the contact relationships of millions of people within cities change over time, it is difficult to accurately predict the dynamics of large-scale outbreaks and evaluate the impact of the contact tracking and isolation strategy based on individual contact history on epidemic transmission. Here, we propose a non-markov spreading model based on individual contact dynamic network, to simulate the dynamic contact processes in a city with millions of people. In this model, the historical contact population of each infected person can be backtracked and tracked. Our model can accurately describe the COVID19 epidemic in Wuhan and Hong Kong. We assess the impact of four agent -based epidemic intervention strategies: travel control, contact tracking and isolation, vaccination, and regular nucleic acid testing to all residents on the epidemic evolution and economic losses. We find that for the original SARS-CoV-2 virus, a strict travel control strategy is effective in both suppressing the spread of COVID-19 and minimizing economic losses. For the Omicron variant (BA.2) with stronger infectious capacity, a relatively loose travel control and an appropriate combination of the other three strategies can effectively control the epidemic outbreak while minimize economic losses. This paper provides an efficient framework for assessing the combination of different agent -based strategies by large-scale simulations in the case of unknown historical contact information of large populations, and the studies on different combinations of control strategies can provide theoretical guidance for future prevention and control.

关键词： Economic resilience   Industrial dynamics   Cascading effects   COVID-19 epidemic   RESOURCE-BASED VIEW   FIRM   REGIONS   IMPACT   PROPAGATION   PERFORMANCE   ADAPTATION   OUTCOMES   SHOCKS   CRISES  

摘要： The COVID-19 epidemic has altered the economic geographies of cities. However, the academic focus on urban industries and their structural dynamics is far from enough. In this paper, we integrate literature from economic geography, business studies and network sciences, and design an adaptation framework to theorize urban economic resilience. Taking the COVID-19 outbreak in Xinfadi, Beijing during the summer of 2020 as a case study, we use Logit regressions and DID estimations to identify the impacts of the epidemic on local industrial dynamics. Our results support that the COVID-19 outbreak significantly increases the number of business exits. The negative impacts are concentrated in high-risk regions, pointing to specific industries and individual-owned firms. Furthermore, we use a machine learning method to visualize the dynamics of industry networks in a small-scale urban area, and then simulate the transmission paths of industry-failure. In doing so, we contribute to current economic resilience literature that firm-level adaptation and industrial dynamics complement regional adaptation theory, while the cascading effects in the industry network underpin the micro foundations of resilience formation.